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Heavy truck market prediction in 2013

heavy truck market prediction in 2013

China Construction machinery information

Guide: because heavy trucks not only have a large market share in commercial vehicles, but also have a high profit margin, long-term heavy trucks have become synonymous with commercial vehicles, and have always been the focus of competition in the commercial vehicle industry at home and abroad. The market demand for heavy trucks is divided into two parts, one is the new demand, and the other is the update demand. Because the heavy truck

due to the large market share and high profit margin of heavy trucks in commercial vehicles, heavy trucks have become synonymous with commercial vehicles for a long time, and have always been the focus of competition in the commercial vehicle industry at home and abroad

researchers often divide it into two parts with the market demand of hydrophilic materials, one is the new demand, and the other is the update demand

because heavy trucks are a means of production, their new demand is mainly affected by the national macroeconomic environment, especially the investment in fixed assets and the turnover of highway goods. As the growth rate of China's GDP fell for two consecutive years from 2011 to 2012, the growth rate of the "troika" of fixed asset investment, consumption and import and export trade fell comprehensively. On the one hand, the growth of road freight volume, road freight turnover and port container throughput slowed down, resulting in the contraction of new demand in the heavy-duty truck and semitrailer tractor market; On the other hand, the new demand for special chassis for infrastructure projects and special transportation also accelerated, resulting in a sharp decline in the new demand in the overall heavy truck market

from the perspective of renewal demand, according to statistics, the renewal cycle of heavy trucks in the United States is 4-6 years, while the renewal cycle of domestic heavy trucks is relatively short, only 3-5 years, due to their high frequency and intensity of use. Due to the introduction of the government's policy of "4trillion investment to stimulate the economy" from 2009 to 2010, the demand for heavy trucks soared. On the one hand, overdraft consumption occurred, and on the other hand, 2011 to 2012 became the trough of renewal demand

after two consecutive years of deep decline, the author predicts that the heavy truck market will usher in a large-scale rebound in 2013. There are four main reasons: first, China's economy is expected to start a moderate recovery in the first and second quarters of 2013. Although structural problems and population aging may slow down the medium and long-term growth of China's economy, I believe that with the steady growth policy, the selection of a group of backbone enterprises of new materials with strong innovation ability, great leading role, high research and development level and good development potential, and the end of destocking of industrial enterprises, China's economy will achieve a cyclical rebound in 2013

second, infrastructure investment is expected to increase significantly. In the second half of 2012, the national development and Reform Commission has approved 25 rail transit and railway trunk line projects; 13 highway engineering projects and 7 port construction and other national huge engineering projects were approved. At the same time, local governments across the country have successively issued pull plans on local industry, investment, consumption and other aspects. The conservative plan has a cumulative investment of more than 12.8 trillion yuan, and the actual investment plan has exceeded 20 trillion yuan, which has opened up development space for the future heavy truck market

third, the implementation of the fourth national emission standard. The implementation of the fourth national emission standard on July 1st, 2013 will enable some heavy truck users to purchase or update vehicles in advance. It is preliminarily expected that the sales of heavy trucks in the second quarter of 2013 will rebound significantly year-on-year. Generally speaking, the upgrading of emission standards will directly increase the first purchase cost of heavy trucks. For the upgrading of the fourth national emission standard, both the fuel injection system and the exhaust gas treatment system need to be upgraded. The purchase price of heavy truck single vehicle will increase by 20000 ~ 30000 yuan

fourth, the year-on-year base is small. Affected by the deep decline from 2011 to 2012, the sales base of heavy trucks in 2012 will drop to about 635000, which undoubtedly laid the foundation for the market rebound in 2013

the development of natural gas truck market will enter the fast lane

whether it is the China Datong International Automobile Culture Festival in August 2012 or the Guangzhou international commercial vehicle exhibition at the end of 2012, natural gas heavy trucks are one of its biggest highlights. This model not only has the advantages of energy conservation and emission reduction, green environmental protection and cost saving, but also its power performance is not inferior to diesel vehicles

natural gas heavy trucks have obvious advantages over diesel vehicles. First of all, a natural gas heavy truck is generally 400000 yuan, which is 80000 yuan more expensive than an ordinary heavy truck, but the driving cost of natural gas vehicles is low, saving 1 yuan per kilometer than an ordinary vehicle, so that the overpaid vehicle purchase fee of 80000 yuan can be recovered in one year; Secondly, natural gas burns fully without carbon deposition, which can effectively prolong the service life of the engine; Moreover, the environmental protection performance of natural gas trucks is also better, and the pollutant emissions are reduced by more than 90% compared with diesel vehicles, which is easy to meet the upcoming national fourth emission standard

under the situation that the sales volume of the heavy truck industry plummeted by 28.91% year-on-year from January to November 2012, the sales volume of Shaanxi Auto, which entered the field of natural gas heavy truck seven years ago, fell by 18.89% in the same period, the smallest decline among the top 10 heavy truck enterprises, and far better than the industry average level, which is mainly due to its sales of natural gas heavy trucks. At present, Shaanxi Automobile has 65% of the natural gas heavy truck market. From the Guangzhou international commercial vehicle exhibition at the end of 2012, BAIC Foton and FAW Jiefang both exhibited their own natural gas heavy trucks, while China heavy truck, Dongfeng commercial vehicle, beiben heavy truck, United truck and other companies are currently overweight the development of natural gas trucks

in addition, in the first three quarters of 2012, Weichai and Yuchai's large and medium displacement vehicle diesel engines with more than 6 liters showed a decline in varying degrees, but the corresponding vehicle natural gas engines showed a sharp rise. The natural gas medium and heavy truck market has been quietly launched in 2012 when it is under horizontal force. With the acceleration of the construction of natural gas source points and the official implementation of the fourth national emission standard on July 1st, 2013, it is reasonable to believe that the development of the natural gas truck market in 2013 will enter the fast lane

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